Turkey’s Kabul project is fraught with many risks

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey has made so many mistakes in foreign policy over the past 10 years because of following the ideology of the Ikhwans. Now the AKP is on the verge of making another serious mistake in Afghanistan.

The United States and its allies suffered a heavy defeat in Afghanistan. They finally saw that they had no chance of winning, and they are leaving Afghanistan. 

However, the AKP government wants to continue to keep the soldiers of the Turkish armed forces in Afghanistan, as well as take a contract for the maintenance and security of the airport in Kabul.

President Joe Biden, who took office in Washington in January 2021, created a working group on a new policy, which included Afghan experts, to decide whether to continue or complete this process. 

It was decided to completely withdraw the troops. In short, even in Washington, many now recognize that the US adventure in Afghanistan is one of the biggest failures of foreign policy.

The issue of ensuring security at the Kabul airport should not be considered as the only task. The fate of the airport depends on the fate of Kabul. 

Currently, Kabul is controlled by the US-backed Afghan government, and Turkish forces provide security at the airport. However, after the US leaves, the Taliban will certainly want to seize Kabul and take control of the airport.

Under these circumstances, if the Taliban capture Kabul, we should not expect them to agree that the airport should be controlled by US-backed forces.

It is also clear that Erdogan believe that both Turkey and the Taliban are Muslims, so it will be easier for them to negotiate. However, the parties with whom the Taliban have waged the bloodiest wars to date have always been Muslims, so this expectation is unrealistic.

In exchange for the risks assumed, Turkey will gain little. The duty to protect the Kabul airport will also not help solve the problem of Afghan immigrants.

Ankara should abandon the Kabul project and direct its energy to a more effective solution to the problem of Afghan immigrants, whose number is likely to grow. According to the UN, Turkey is the country with the largest number of immigrants in the world.

Unfortunately, the Erdogan government used immigrants from Syria, Afghanistan or other countries as blackmail against European countries. At rallies and bilateral meetings, Erdogan directly poured out threats, stating: "Look, otherwise we will open the doors!".

Experts believe that the Turkish armed forces may face difficult situations at the airport. The historical friendly relations with Afghanistan may suffer. 

Contrary to Erdogan's expectations, this may negatively affect the importance of Turkey in the countries of Central Asia. Turkey may lose its reputation. As control is lost, terrorism may increase.