Somalia's elections, a threat to Farmajo

Somalia's incumbent president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo apparently believes that if elections are held, he will lose. So do many Somalis, both traditionalists and reformers, and now everyone is on the watch for Farmajo’s efforts to rig the vote.

According to Somali officials close to Farmajo’s advisors, Farmajo’s plan is to re-elect himself as Somalia’s president to follow his late dictator uncle Siad Barre.

Farmajo continued blocking serious efforts to hold the long-delayed elections. He persuaded parliament to extend his current term, which expired in February 2021, two more years.

That was something parliament did not have the power to do and Farmajo used his Turkish-trained troops to stage a coup against police and any other armed, or unarmed groups in Mogadishu that opposed him.

Farmajo underestimated the resistance in Mogadishu and the rest of the country, so he agreed that the two-year term extension was illegal and made serious efforts to negotiate a settlement.

The election crisis began in June 2020 when the National Independent Electoral Commission told parliament that it was impossible to hold elections for parliament and a new president as scheduled on November 27 2020.

The delay was blamed on the usual suspects; political deadlocks, poor security (bandits and Islamic terrorists), bad weather (floods this time) and covid19. 

To assure a minimum level of legitimacy the six million eligible Somali voters must be registered biometrically, which requires special equipment that had not yet been obtained because the Electoral Commission lacked the money and needed at least $70 million to set up 5,000 polling stations and carry out the biometric registration.

Fair elections are seen as a threat to Farmajo's regime. That regime is now seen by most Somalis as more of a problem than a solution. Fair voting is also seen as a major threat to allied clan leaders and politicians and government officials.