Amidst the corridors of global markets... The first half of 2025 is a volatile quarter

The first half of 2025 is a volatile quarter                                                                     

Amidst the corridors of global markets... The first half of 2025 is a volatile quarter

The first half of 2025 was not easy for global markets. Rather, it was fraught with sharp fluctuations that reshaped the asset landscape, amid political tensions and financial and monetary decisions that confounded expectations.

Although gold and platinum stole the spotlight with exceptional performance, the dollar, oil, and stocks were no less volatile. Structural shifts in investor appetite and unprecedented pressures on major currencies and economies made this fiscal quarter one of the most volatile since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Energy Markets: Oil Under Pressure from Lost Balance

In the energy market, oil prices ended the first half of 2025 with losses of nearly 9%, affected by fading geopolitical concerns and fears of a global oversupply. However, the declines were not continuous, as prices experienced waves of ups and downs.

Prices rebounded in June, with Brent crude posting monthly gains of about 6 percent, paring some of the previous losses. The market now awaits the results of the OPEC+ meeting at the end of the week, amid expectations of a fourth consecutive production increase, according to Bloomberg.

US Dollar: Worst First Half Since the 1970s

The US dollar suffered what some described as a "historic blow," falling by about 11 percent during the first six months of the year, its largest half-yearly loss since 1973. This loss was driven by President Donald Trump's trade policies and his public pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, along with a trend by pension funds and central banks around the world to reassess their exposure to US assets.

Precious Metals: Gold Shines, Platinum Steals the Spotlight

In contrast, gold prices experienced exceptional performance, rising more than 25 percent during the first half of the year, its best half-year performance since 1979. Gold benefited from the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and the weakening US dollar, which strengthened its appeal as a safe haven.

But the biggest surprise was the platinum market, which outperformed gold, jumping more than 47 percent, its best half-year performance ever. Demand for platinum increased from jewelry manufacturers in China, along with growing industrial use, particularly in the automotive and hydrogen fuel cell sectors.

Global Stocks: Cautious Gains Amid Tensions

Despite all these shifts, equity markets were not immune to the volatility, albeit less pronounced in some areas. US indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached record highs driven by gains in the technology and artificial intelligence sectors.

 while Asian markets benefited from improved trade prospects and a recovery in the Chinese economy, with some regional indices reaching their highest levels in three years. However, re-pricing concerns persist, amid cautious anticipation of second-quarter results and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy.

A busy first half... and a second half with no guarantees

As the first half of 2025 comes to a close, markets stand at a new crossroads. Between interest rate shifts, trade policy options in Washington, the performance of OPEC+, and global investor trends.

 the coming months appear poised for further shifts and perhaps surprises. While this half witnessed a repositioning of the balance of gold, currencies, and energy, the second half may hold a new chapter in the story of global markets, where there is no room for constants and all possibilities are open.