Qatar, a country punching above its weight

Although it is a small country in a dangerous neighborhood, Qatar has regional ambitions. It punches above its weight diplomatically by acting as a mediator in conflicts in the Horn of Africa.

The foreign policy of Qatar is based on trust and a set of personal connections. The emir, his wife and their entourage think that they’ve figured out the Horn of Africa perfectly. 

But Qatar is in over its head, arrogant and naïve. Qatar’s ambitions run way ahead of its capacity to operate in the Horn of Africa and that it could come badly unstuck.

In the midst of Eritrea’s war with Ethiopia, Qatar started mediating between Sudan and Eritrea. The reason why Qatar took the initiative in bringing both warring countries to a settlement was because Qatar has a wide range of oil exploration interest in Sudan.

In April 2008, to the great surprise of Qatari officials who had not seen it coming, the Ethiopian government severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. 

Ethiopia officially, and in harsh terms, accused Qatar of becoming a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa. The Ethiopian government also suspected that Qatar was using Al Jazeera to undermine Ethiopian security.

Qatar’s most visible mediation effort was the Darfur mediation. Yet, Qatar’s efforts have not been rewarded by significant improvements in Darfur. Missteps in the mediation have also shown shortcomings in Qatari diplomacy.

The Doha agreement was signed in March 2010 between the Sudanese government and the major rebel groups operating in Darfur. 

The agreement, which was meant to establish a lasting cessation of hostilities and to lead to a more comprehensive peace agreement, was given full coverage by Al Jazeera. But, the agreement did not achieve any consensus among the conflicting parties.

Qatar’s ruling Al Thani family, currently headed by Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad, is one of the largest ruling families in the Middle East. This extended family has had a long history of intense infighting, mainly over foreign alliances and for top political positions.

The family is the center of the country’s politics and in a position of uncontested power, with absolute control over all existing institutions. Appointments to the highest government offices are usually based on personal loyalty to the incumbent emir, whose primary concern is the ongoing centralization and retention of power.