Erdogan's credibility test

Turkey announced last week it had established diplomatic contact with Egypt for the first time since 2013 as part of broader efforts to repair relations with a host of Middle Eastern rivals. 

The announcement received a tepid response in Cairo, where Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said "words are not enough – they must be matched by deeds".

As a first step to mend ties with Cairo, Turkey issued an order for Istanbul-based TV channels affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood (El Sharq TV, Watan TV, Mekameleen) to immediately stop airing political shows critical of Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sissi and his regime.

Penalties will be imposed on those who defy the order; this includes permanently closing down the TV stations. The move follows a series of surprise overtures to Egypt by top Turkish officials.

The three Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated channels began broadcasting from Istanbul between the years 2013-2015 following the fall of former Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the rise of el-Sissi’s regime in 2014.

Erdogan, who is closely identified with the Muslim Brotherhood movement, helped these media outlets find a home in Turkey to disseminate the movement's propaganda, which is outlawed in Egypt.

Now, Erdogan wants to show el-Sissi that he's serious in his desire to normalize relations between the countries. However, it is not clear if the Turkish President will succeed in the pursuit of his strategic policy shift which is based on auctioning off the Muslim Brotherhood members who had sought refuge in his country and under his wings.

It worth mentioning that projects such as the EastMed pipeline, that Turkey considers its territorial waters, will likely turn the East Mediterranean into a major energy hub following the discovery of massive natural gas reserves.

As Turkey left strategically isolated, Erdogan considers an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement could lead to a major regional realignment, shutting down a major source of tension for Ankara caused by its perennial rivals Greece and Cyprus.

The Turkish overtures come at a time when Ankara appears to be trying to find a way out of its isolation in recent years, mending ties with Egypt, Israel and the European Union and working to defuse tension with Greece over maritime jurisdiction in the Mediterranean.