With Trump removed, Erdogan should be worried

Tensions between the U.S. and Turkey have been mounting. Looking ahead to a Joe Biden administration, there’s a chance that some of those tensions could blow up. The next four years for Turkey and its relationship with Washington are likely to look very different from the last four. 

Among the points of conflict between Washington and Ankara are: human rights in Turkey, which Democrats in particular have spoken out against; Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system which angered its NATO allies and nearly triggered U.S. sanctions; and its military action against America’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria and support for Islamic extremist groups, which Ankara argues are not terrorists and are necessary to protect its interests in the region. 

There are also Erdogan’s aggressive moves against Greece and Cyprus over gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean; Turkey’s alleged role in helping Iran skirt U.S. sanctions; and the shared Incirlik air base, where Turkey hosts a huge number of American troops, aircraft and some 50 of its nuclear warheads — and which Erdogan has threatened to cut off if hit with U.S. sanctions. 

Based on Biden's previous statements, it looks like there will be a tougher line from Washington. In an interview last January, Biden called Erdogan an “autocrat,” criticized his actions toward the Kurds and said that the Turkish leader “has to pay a price.” He also suggested the U.S. should support Turkish opposition leaders “to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, but by the electoral process.” 

The incoming Biden administration is likely to take a much tougher stance on Turkey than Donald Trump has done. Sanctions would be a devastating blow to Turkey’s already suffering economy.