Do Khamenei's "hesitant" threats reflect the internal weakness of the Iranian regime?

Do Khamenei's "hesitant" threats reflect the internal weakness of the Iranian regime?

The recent statements of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, have mixed fear and intimidation. He tried to focus on the capabilities of his regime, but he showed clear hesitation when talking about the Iranian regime's ballistic missile program, saying: "For example, the limit we set on the accuracy of missiles can be removed."

It seems that the main goal was not the accuracy of the missiles but rather increasing their range, but in the middle of the sentence he improvised and praised the removal of restrictions on the accuracy of missiles, which was meaningless in several respects:

1- The meaninglessness of setting limits on the accuracy of missiles: No country sets limits on improving the accuracy of its missiles. Every missile-producing country always seeks to achieve the highest level of accuracy. Setting limits on the accuracy of missiles is basically illogical.

2- Contradiction with previous claims: Iran has always emphasized the high accuracy of its missiles and its ability to hit targets with precision. If this is true, then there is no need to remove the accuracy restrictions. However, if these claims are inaccurate, this means that previous officials have exaggerated the promotion of the capabilities of the missiles.

3- The prevailing system in the Iranian missile program: In the Iranian regime’s military discourse, when talking about “restrictions” or “removal of restrictions” in the context of the missile program, what is usually meant is the range of the missiles, not their accuracy.

It seems that Khamenei was trying to present a threat against Europe and the United States, but he hesitated in the middle of his words and feared the possible reactions, which prompted him to change his tone. In recent weeks, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards commanders have continued to issue threats against Europe, the United States, and Israel. The main purpose of these threats is to try to show strength, while many international analysts say that Iran is suffering from severe weakness.

After the blows suffered by Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of Assad, the curbing of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, as well as the decline in the Iranian regime’s defensive capabilities in the face of Israeli attacks, the regime’s military structure and regional power have lost their strength significantly. Under these circumstances, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards commanders are trying to compensate for this deterioration by escalating the hostile rhetoric and showing that Iran is still strong.

It is worth noting that Khamenei's recent threats, especially after Donald Trump's return to the American political scene, reflect fear more than strength. This mixture of fear and threat is the main feature of the Iranian regime's recent positions. He knows that even domestic and international analysts are talking about the weakness of the regime, and that some senior figures in Iran have expressed concern about the risk of collapse.

For example, Hassan Rouhani, who served as Secretary and Director of the Supreme National Security Council for years, explicitly warned that a single mistake in the current circumstances could lead to the loss of everything. These warnings, especially when they come from security figures within the regime, reflect deep anxiety within the structure of the Tehran regime.

In addition to external threats, Khamenei fears the spread of a sense of weakness among the regime's security and repressive forces. If these forces believe that the Iranian regime is collapsing, they may hesitate to suppress internal protests, which could ultimately lead to the collapse of the repressive structure, which is a serious threat to the regime's survival.

Khamenei's stammering words and unclear threats reflect doubts and fear of the coming circumstances. While regional and international analysts focus on the weakness of the Iranian regime, the Supreme Leader is trying to hide this weakness by increasing threats. However, there are clear indications that concern about the future of the Iranian regime has increased even among senior officials in the regime.