Turks are scared for their future

Turkey’s quixotic policies are putting pressure on prices, but now fallout from Ukraine is pushing the country towards crisis.

Turkey is weathering an unprecedented financial crisis. After the lira lost half its value last year alone, the country is now struggling with rocketing inflation, officially 61.14%.

When Turkey’s official inflation rate broke 50% in February, it represented both a two-decade high and a huge political problem for the government.

Spiralling inflation is tied to the government’s efforts to radically overhaul the Turkish economy, keeping interest rates low in the belief that this will stimulate it and increase production against the advice of most experts. There have also been frequent changes in key personnel at the central bank. Turkey has now had four central bank chiefs in three years.

The lira’s slide against the dollar was already affecting Turkey’s ability to import wheat, but the loss of Ukrainian supplies has left it scrambling to find alternatives, including dipping into its own reserves.

Polls have also shown that more than half – 53.6% – of Turkish citizens were only just managing to meet basic needs last May, while a quarter said they couldn’t cover their essential costs. Earlier this year, delivery and supermarket workers staged prolonged strikes to demand wage increases in line with inflation.

As prices rose, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the opposition Republican People’s party (CHP), declared on camera that he would not pay his own electricity bill until Erdoğan brought prices down. AKP officials labelled this “a provocation”.

Ordinary Turks remain “preoccupied with the economy”, says Ekrem Cunedioğlu, an economist with the opposition İyi party. It is hoping to persuade the Turkish public that it can fix the economy as elections, which are due by or before 2023, start to loom.

“What we see from the data is rising deep poverty, meaning income not meeting basic needs. Inflation might reduce next year but deepening poverty will prove tougher to solve.”

Turkey’s efforts to find a solution in Ukraine, and potentially bring down food prices in the process, bring little solace, Duru adds. “It brings me no comfort or distraction – I live with the prices in my regular life, and my friends do too. 

Yes we talk about the war, but right now all we talk about is inflation,” she says. Prices are changing on a daily basis and everyone is scared for their future, she adds. “Unless I see the dollar go down, I’m not going to feel comfortable or secure.”