Erdogan's ottoman dream

Military expansionism embodied a major aspect of the Ottoman Empire. This explains why Erdogan has sent Turkish troops to Libya, Syria, Iraq, Nagorno-Karabakh and Qatar. The Turkish intervention in Libya has threatened stability with the presence of mercenaries and the proliferation of weapons among extremist militias.

Turkey has a military base in Qatar because the government of Qatar invited Turkey in. As far as Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya are concerned, these two conflict areas are new. Erdogan’s engagement in Libya is informed by economic investments in Libya as well as his affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood. It is clear that Erdogan’s intervention transformed the configuration of forces in that country. 

Yet, there is little confidence in Turkey’s ability to pursue an “imperial policy” in the Middle East and the Balkans. But what will be the impact of Erdogan’s ongoing military strategy on Turkey?.

Turkey does not have sufficient resources or the desire to become an imperial power. Turkey’s economy and human capital are limited. There is no desire to resurrect the Ottoman Empire. 

Erdogan is an Islamist but a realist as well. He knows what he can and cannot do. Erdogan is a complicated individual who can, at the same time, defend the rights of Muslims in states such as Myanmar and Crimea yet deny basic cultural rights for the Kurds and their language. 

Erdogan, as a prudent and pragmatic yet ruthless leader, would not engage in any military conflict unless he was confident of winning it. 

Many Libyans hope that Biden would stay true to his vow during his electoral campaign to counter Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions in Libya.

Turkey is increasing its military presence on the ground towards building an air base and a navy base, Russia has sent its combat aircraft to the Jufra base, while Cairo publicly threatens with direct military intervention through the support of the tribes and the Libyan Parliament. 

So far, the war in Libya through proxies has been inexpensive for Turkey militarily; however, its transformation into a direct and regular war would be very costly, both financially and humanly.