Farmajo's new tactic for staying in office

After months of haggling and bitter verbal conflict, parliamentary elections should take place next month, followed by the presidential election in February. Yet it is becoming increasingly clear that President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' will not give up power easily.

The national election committee has been rejected as partisan for dominated by federal government employees, members of the national intelligence agency, and supporters of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo.

Farmajo dreams of consolidating power within Somalia and reviving the idea of greater Somalia. He would like to do this with external help, probably from Turkey and Qatar. Turkey has dreams of reviving the Ottoman Empire with Somalia as its southern end, which explains its large ambassadorial structure and military base in Mogadishu. 

Farmajo faces an election in which he has adopted anti-Kenyan strategy to win votes. His new strategy is to intensify tensions with Kenya over Jubaland and his attempt to contain Madobe, and over British and Norwegian induced maritime claims over Kenyan wealth at sea. He has no desire to settle the cooked up maritime dispute in the belief that settling it might lose him votes next year.

Apart from ‘rebellious’ politicians and regional presidents, Farmajo does not have effective control of large sections of Somalia, including Villa Somalia, in which the Al Shabaab is virtually the law.

The terror outfit collects more ‘taxes’ from business and employees than the official government. With the ambivalence of extra-continental powers over whether the Al Shabaab is terroristic enough for the UN to classify it as a terrorist organisation, Farmajo is equally ambivalent.

Kenya’s interest in cutting the Al Shabaab to size, therefore, appears like a threat to Farmajo who then prefers Somalia remaining like a political wilderness as long as he has some influence. Making accusations on Kenya is Farmajo’s way of maintaining his influence over the Somali geopolitical wilderness.