Iran's Khamenei loses sense of security

Iran’s 84-year-old ruler Ali Khamenei once again hinted at his doubts about the political challenges his regime faces on Monday, expressing concern over election turnout and other issues.

Khamenei has been sounding increasingly concerned about his regime's legitimacy and influence over the population following mass anti-regime protests in 2022-2023. The October 7 Hamas invasion of Israel and the ensuing war has further challenged the regime’s ability to ease Iran’s economic crisis.

In his latest speech on Monday, one week before the anniversary of the 1979 revolution, Khamenei brought up the issue of his regime's authority, the decline in support for the Islamic ideology, and the expected low turnout in the March 1 election, as a barometer of the people's support for the regime.

The keywords in his speech were authority, the February 11 revolution rally, and a high-turnout election. Although it was not the first time he used those keywords during the past year, but every time he has sounded weaker and more worried.

He also has deep concerns about his own security after the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman that killed 95 people and was claimed by the ISIS branch in Afghanistan. The serious security breach makes the February 11 rally more of a threat than an opportunity to garner popular support. The regime even ignored a US warning, delivered privately, which could have saved all the lives lost.

Since October 7, Khamenei's departure from his hardline revolutionary stance has diminished his standing among his fervent supporters in Iran. As he abandoned his proxy groups in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, he lost the support he had hoped to gain in the Middle East.

Furthermore, Khamenei called on academics, students, politicians, businessmen, members of the press, and military personnel to distance themselves from perceived enemies. Ironically, this plea comes as hardline clerics routinely accuse academics, journalists, and entrepreneurs of being spies and agents of the enemy.

Khamenei's emphasis on dividing insiders from outsiders is underscored by the recent arrests, and possibly executions, of at least two of his high-ranking insiders—an intelligence minister and an IRGC intelligence chief—on charges of espionage for Israel.