Farmajo, the main obstacle towards peace in Somalia

At the heart of Somalia's dispute has been president Farmajo’s determination to stay in office for two years beyond the end of his term on 8 February, ostensibly to enable the holding of delayed elections.

After intense domestic and international pressure, Farmajo agreed to abandon his term extension plan and instead allow Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble to hold talks to broker a settlement.

But the situation remains fragile. Last week, Farmajo rejected a role for the African Union’s special envoy, whose participation the opposition regards as crucial.

The persistent political crisis gives the jihadist group al-Shabab an opportunity to sell itself as the reliable alternative for governance in Somalia. The expectation is that it will try to disrupt any upcoming elections through bombings and shootings as it has done in the past.

Yesterday, seven Kenyan soldiers have been killed and one is missing in Lamu county after a bomb and ambush by Islamic militant al-Shabab rebels from neighboring Somalia. Al-Shabab has vowed revenge on Kenya for sending its troops to support the Somali government against their jihadi rebellion.

The recent political tension has only exacerbated the already alarming vulnerabilities faced by the people of Somalia. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis made homeless in recent years by either conflict or climate shocks shelter in overcrowded camps in urban areas, where they are vulnerable to any politically inspired violence.

The opposition argues that Farmajo is the main obstacle towards peaceful, transparent and inclusive” elections. Their key demand is for him to hand power to an interim government.