Farmajo's Dirty War

Under President Farmajo, there has been little development taking place in Somalia because there are large areas of the country under the control of Al-Shabaab. The presence of this militant group adds more complexity to what was already a tortured, long-shot process of country building. 

Although Jowhar is 90 km north of Mogadishu, one has to fly there because of the insecurity of the road that connects the two cities surrounded by the radical Islamic group. Only a week ago, some government officials were flying between Balcad, a city 54 km away, and Jowhar. 

The Somali federal government, the leaders of the federal member states, and the federal parliament have agreed to hold indirect elections in 2020/2021 instead of following the one-person-one vote principle. The coming elections will resemble the 2016, in which a confluence of tribal chieftains, money, foreign influences, and federal government meddling were integral.

Somalia is experiencing a tense political struggle, with old political agreements among clans being challenged and new alliances being formed. The situation there is becoming the stomping ground of a power struggle between President Mohamed Farmajo and his rival, former president Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.

Ali Abdullahi Hussein “Guudlaawe” (Abgaal) has been the vice president of HirShabelle and is now a candidate for the state presidency. His candidacy is supported by President Mohamed Farmajo and Fahad Yasin, the director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). 

Farmajo’s strategy in supporting Guudlaawe is an attempt to stave off two of his leading rivals, former presidents Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, who are Abgaal. Guudlaawe, if elected, will be in a position to help in the selection of federal parliamentarians from HirShabelle, who in turn will select the president of the country.

Somalia has become a model of state failure. It is a region in which clan politics is acute, and flimsy views of governance reign supreme. It suffers from a lack of development, the marginalization of women, and being stuck with politicians who keep on failing. Moreover, there is clear and present danger from the Al-Shabaab radical group. It is a country seen by the world as a battlefield for election manipulation. It will take another four years before the leaders of the federal government pay any attention.