Sudan has a long and difficult road ahead

It has been four years since the ousting of Omar al-Bashir and his regime in one of the largest turn of events in Sudan’s history.

But to this day, Khartoum is still struggling: ongoing conflicts between political powers and military leaders, restless streets, and now a war between the Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Today, hopes of reconciliation between the two warring parties have been pinned on the Jeddah talks. Both leaders should learn lessons from Somalia, Libya, and Chad where the conflicts spiraled out of control and the leaders lost most of their interests over the many years – or decades – of war.

At this stage, there is still a possibility of military or political reconciliation.

The conflict between the two parties is still in its beginnings, but how long it will last – weeks, months, years – is still unclear. The fighting cannot be described as a civil war, despite touching the capital, the presidential palace, and several main roads and vital cities.

If the mediations succeed, supported by internal and external pressures, and both parties are able to reach an agreement on their roles in power or the handover of power, the fighting could stop. This is why the meeting in Saudi Arabia is so important: it could nip the war in the bud.

Efforts are focused on reaching a reconciliation between the two generals, with no perfect solution in sight. Things could become more complicated if the two parties refuse to hand over power to civilian rule because complete military victory doesn’t seem possible any time soon.

The reconciliation of the two parties and their return to the status quo ante should be accompanied by a road map for restoring civilian political life. This will be a difficult mission, but neither party has a better option.

Reaching a reconciliation that puts an end to the bloodshed and spares Sudan the worst of this conflict is a collective responsibility. Sudan risks immense damage in the future as the scale of the fighting grows, state institutions fail, and the country becomes hostage to the lords of civil war.