The prospect of a global conflict .. World War III

Since the Second World War, there has been no major war between the great powers. The original post-war European project was based around peace, social justice and harmony. The unravelling of this project, accompanied by rising nationalism, is likely to exacerbate the dangers of war.

Russian president Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine is historically part of Russia and that Kiev needs to return to the Russian fold.

In July 2021, a public letter by President Putin asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people and castigated Ukraine’s authorities for justifying independence by denying its past.

Now, Russia has massed around 100,000 troops near Ukraine's border, demanding that NATO promise it will never allow Ukraine to join.

Russia has also deployed offensive weapons and systems within striking distance of Ukraine, including main battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems, Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, and towed artillery.

If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to advance into Ukraine through northern, central, and southern invasion routes.

The Kremlin’s primary goal is a guarantee that Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia will never belong to a military or economic bloc other than the ones Moscow controls and that Russia will be the ultimate arbitrator of the foreign and security policy of all three states.

With enough troops, firepower, logistics, time, and national will, as well as no outside interference, Russia could grind forward until its military achieves the Kremlin’s political objectives.

Experts believe that the United States and its European allies and partners should be prepared for an invasion by taking immediate economic, diplomatic, military, intelligence, and humanitarian steps to aid Ukraine and its population and shore up defenses along the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) eastern flank.

President Joe Biden said Friday that he will move US troops to NATO allies in Eastern Europe in the "near term," marking a new phase in the US response to Russia's escalation on the Ukrainian border, which US officials fear could soon lead to an invasion.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US response made its "core principles" clear, including Ukraine's sovereignty and its right to choose to be part of security alliances such as Nato.

aIn the meantime, Russian families are sure to resent their soldiers being used as cannon fodder, and the ubiquitous presence of cell phone cameras and videos in today’s world will expand soldiers’ complaints beyond their units.

However, should war come, it will not be cost free, in terms of casualties, or other significant effects which would bring back the Cold War days or even World War 3 .