Gulf reconciliation requires more than US blessing

Saudi Arabia will host the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit’s 41st session, on Tuesday, at the city of Al-Ula under the chairpersonship of the country’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz.

The kingdom hoped that the summit will heal the ongoing rift between GCC states, consolidate reconciliation, and enhance cooperation. The discussions that have been tabled for the summit, the 10th session to be hosted by Saudi Arabia, will last for one day.

Although there appears to be political will among GCC leaders to resolve the crisis, there is merit to suspect another fumbled effort. 

The fact that the summit is not being held on neutral grounds such as in Kuwait or Oman can be a signal that full efforts have not been applied to diffuse tensions, albeit it is noteworthy to mention that past agreements, such as the 2014 Riyadh agreement, have been signed on Saudi territory. 

Another sign that reconciliation efforts may not have been fruitful is the fact that Qatar’s Foreign Minister did not attend the Manama pre-summit meeting.

Additionally, recent escalations between Bahrain and Qatar should raise questions about whether reconciliation discussions are a wholly good faith exercise. 

Letters submitted by Qatar to the United Nations Security Council alleged that Bahrain clashed with Qatar over the enforcement of maritime boundaries and flew its fighter jets over Qatar’s territorial water. 

If true and intentional, this would be an indicator that there are efforts to supplant ongoing negotiations. It is no secret that when it comes to GCC affairs, Bahrain does not act independently, especially in affairs that concern the interests of both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Nonetheless, with Washington’s intensified pressure to resolve the crisis, this iteration of talks seems to be more promising than prior attempts. 

The best outcome for the Gulf rift appears to be the parties walking away with confidence-building measures which could be a framework for future negotiations. 

Even if this were the case, there will still be a trust-deficit between Qatar and the blockading states at all levels, and it will require more than a signed summit agreement to return to the pre-2017 intra-GCC relations.