Erdogan’s military adventurism

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s involvement in Libya is not motivated by neighborly goodwill, but instead a desire to expand Ankara’s influence in the region. In addition to expanding its presence at sea, Ankara makes no secret of wanting to establish its land presence with military bases in Libya.

Erdogan’s adventure together with mercenary extremists in Libya has played a crucial role in his domestic political ambitions. He has dragged Turkey into Libya partly to secure his own domestic support by appealing to the public’s nationalistic sentiment. 

However, a poll by market research firm Istanbul Ekonomi Arastirma found that 58 percent of Turkish people disapproved of the deployment of soldiers to Libya.

Now, more Turks are buying into Erdogan’s narrative, which showcases Libya as a worthy prize, with potential economic gains and expansion of Turkish influence,” according to Dan Arbell, a fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 

The Libyan intervention has been “sold to the public as great successes,” Barkey said. But in reality, Turkey has suffered losses in Libya, with the LNA reporting in February that at least 16 Turkish soldiers had been killed in the conflict. Erdogan confirmed the death of “several.”

As the conflict escalates, public opinion may go against Erdogan if Turkey becomes heavily involved, according to expert Umberto Profazio. “In the Turkish public opinion there is a clear distinction between legitimate military operations abroad and Erdogan’s military adventurism,” said Profazio, an analyst at the NATO Foundation

Turkey’s expansion in the Mediterranean has also ignited new tensions with European countries like France, and Middle Eastern countries. But external backlash has yet to deter Erdogan.