ُErdogan's hostile policy towards the US, EU

Turkey’s relationships within NATO have always been rather bumpy, even during the days of the Cold War. The Cyprus crisis of 1974 saw Turkey and Greece, both NATO members, go to war against each other, which led to the establishment of a largely-forgotten UN demilitarized zone that separates the northern and southern portions of the island. 

But it was the arrival of President Recep Erdogan in 2014 which fueled broader problems for the Alliance. Although Turkey’s actions in the 1970s were of concern to other NATO members, at least it didn’t collide with hostile powers, nor seek to undermine the West in the way it has done in the more recent years under Erdogan. 

President Erdogan first decided to purchase the Russian S-400 in 2017, after claiming that Washington refused to sell its own Patriot missiles on conditions that were acceptable to Ankara. The decision drew immediate protests from the US and NATO, which charged that its deployment would compromise the security of the F-35, the newest US joint strike fighter being deployed by the NATO allies. 

Turkey was suspended from co-production agreements for the aircraft, and its own purchase of 100 planes was cancelled. Last month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Turkey’s main military weapons procurement agency as punishment for its purchase of the S-400.

But it’s not just the S-400 which is ruffling feathers with NATO. Throughout 2020, Erdogan has expanded and acted upon Turkey’s claims over drilling rights for oil and gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean sea bed. Turkey is particularly hostile to its NATO partner, Greece, accusing Athens of trying to transform the Aegean Sea into a “Greek Lake”, owing to the multiplicity of Greek islands each having their own 200-mile exclusive economic zone. 

Erdogan has pushed back hard against Greece’s claims by deploying deep-sea exploration vessels to disputed waters escorted by elements of the Turkish navy. Other NATO partners, such as France, have responded by sending their own naval vessels to aid Greece, raising tensions and even sparking fears of a military altercation at sea. 

Then there’s the potentially explosive issue with America over Halkbank. In October 2019, US federal prosecutors indicted this major Turkish state-owned bank for its alleged involvement in a huge multibillion dollar scheme to evade US sanctions on Iran. 

President Trump initially yielded to pressure from Recep Erdogan to hold off on pursuing the case, but changed his mind when Erdogan ordered troops into Syria. If Halkbank is convicted, it could face dire financial consequences, with fines of billions of dollars, which would have a major impact on the already worsening Turkish economy and the lives of ordinary citizens.

Curiously, the flip side of US sanctions due the S-400, EU sanctions due to the Aegean flare-up and financial penalties due to Halkbank’s actions, could be to strengthen Erdogan’s position in his country. Erdogan has been persistently blaming the US and the West in general for Turkey’s problems, problems which in reality are due to his own poor judgement and mismanagement. 

A familiar ruse of all dictators. Partly due to Erdogan’s harsh rhetoric, 48% of Turks now identify the US as the biggest threat to their country, according to a recent poll.

In many ways, Erdogan is bloody in his attitude to running his country. He is intolerant to criticism, has a firm control of the media, jailing any journalists, cartoonists, movie directors and academics who dare to dissent from his rule. 

Erdogan wants to drive out the educated and business classes that fervently oppose him. Erdogan believes driving out the leaders of Turkey’s civil society will pave the way for landslide electoral victories against a hollowed and rudderless mass. 

Will the arrival of President Joe Biden improve prospects for Erdogan? Probably not. Joe Biden has pledged to rebuild America’s reputation among its allies and partners as a champion of robust democratic institutions and the rule of law. 

This means that in both the Halkbank case and the S-400 dispute, the onus will be on Erdogan to improve relations with the US. This is extremely unlikely, as is any agreement with Greece over exploration rights. 

While Erdogan knows that the standoff in these cases is damaging to his relations with both the US and EU, he prefers to keep Turkish public opinion focused against the West.