Will Khamenei's dangerous game lead to the brink of the "nuclear abyss" and the fall of the regime?

Will Khamenei's dangerous game lead to the brink of the "nuclear abyss" and the fall of the regime?

Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, without directly mentioning Ali Khamenei's name, criticized the Iranian regime's overall policies and warned of the dangers of a clash with Israel, stressing that Washington stands with Tel Aviv and that any strategic mistake could have disastrous consequences for the regime. There is no doubt that Rouhani's recent statements, which he made to his former government ministers, are a new confirmation of his previous positions. He previously warned that a miscalculation could lead to the collapse of the regime.

During this speech, Rouhani criticized most of the country's overall policies and indirectly targeted Khamenei's decisions. His criticism is directly directed at Khamenei, as all the policies he is criticizing now were implemented with the approval and direct guidance of the Iranian regime's leader.

It is worth noting that Hassan Rouhani, in his recent statements, said that circumstances may arise in the near future that would make negotiating with the United States necessary. This position is completely at odds with the position of the Iranian leader. Rouhani's position on negotiating with the United States has always been clear; He has always stressed the need to interact with Washington, just as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani believed in the need to resolve differences between Iran and America.

In contrast, Khamenei used hostility to America as a tool to justify internal problems, and saw this policy as part of the regime’s general strategy. For this reason, Rouhani indirectly warned that any confrontation with Israel would bring the United States into the arena. He stressed the need to make accurate calculations, because America would stand with all its might alongside Israel in any military confrontation.

This warning by Rouhani is an attempt to convince Khamenei not to be led by the Revolutionary Guards commanders in his decisions. He believes that the Guards commanders exaggerate Iran’s military capabilities, as happened in the Iran-Iraq War, when their analyses of their capabilities and Saddam’s forces were not consistent with reality. The fall of al-Faw in 1988 was an example of the Guards’ miscalculations, which led to the continuation of the war in Iraq’s favor. Now, Rouhani warns that any confrontation with Israel could be very costly for the regime.

In addition, Rouhani referred to the economic consequences of America's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, saying that Iran has been losing at least $100 billion annually since 2018. He wondered whether it is possible to compensate for these losses and solve the economic problems. It is worth noting that these statements are in fact a direct attack on the foreign policy dominated by the Revolutionary Guards, which has kept Iran away from the path of international interaction.

In this context, other officials in the Iranian regime have confirmed the impact of America's policies on the Iranian economy. An advisor to the Speaker of Parliament recently said that Trump's rise to power has greatly affected the Iranian economy and led to turmoil in the exchange market.

At the same time, international concerns about the Iranian nuclear program have increased. The Israeli Foreign Minister has warned that the low chances of success of diplomatic solutions may prompt Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Iran could provide the materials needed to make a nuclear bomb in less than a month. In its new report, part of which was published by Reuters, the International Atomic Energy Agency also provided alarming estimates regarding Iran's move towards enrichment for military purposes.

In light of all these developments, it seems that Hassan Rouhani is trying in various ways to warn Khamenei that entering into a military confrontation with Israel could lead to the collapse of the regime. Rouhani's main motive for these warnings is not pity for the people, but rather fear of the fall of the Tehran regime; a regime whose security and executive pillars he himself has been part of for years. It is no secret that the escalation of disagreements within the top of the regime over how to deal with Trump and Israel, in addition to disagreements between officials over domestic policies.

 in light of increasing external pressures and the spread of domestic discontent, could pose an existential challenge to the regime. Moreover, the division between officials in such circumstances could exacerbate the situation and lead to a series of contradictory decisions in domestic and foreign policies. One of the reasons for the fall of dictatorial regimes is these contradictions and doubts in decisions, at the height of external and domestic pressures.