Houthis Continue Destabilizing the Region

The Houthis began attacking merchant ships transiting the Red Sea in mid-November after launching missile and armed drone attacks on U.S. warships and Israeli territory that were virtually all intercepted. The assaults on commercial shipping have forced realignments and added costs to global shipping routes between Europe and Asia.

The Houthi persistence, in the face of U.S.-led military retaliation that began in January, has earned the Houthis respect and admiration among many Yemenis and citizens in the region who support pressuring the United States to halt Israel’s offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The Houthi approach has enabled the movement to attract new recruits and paint its domestic adversary, the UN-recognized Republic of Yemen government, as a tool of Western interests unwilling to support the suffering Gaza civilian population.

The Houthis’ targeting and eventual sinking of the M/V Rubymar in late February, the disabling of the Barbados-flagged True Confidence in early March, which killed three of its crew members and wounded many others, and the 28-drone barrage on March 9 that was thwarted by U.S., French, and U.K. ships, demonstrate that no option has yet succeeded in de-escalating the Red Sea crisis.

U.S. and Western officials assert that the Houthi attacks are hampering aid deliveries to Yemen and causing environmental damage, potentially causing an anti-Houthi backlash among the Yemeni population. 

Diplomats and aid officials with regular access to Yemen assess that a growing number of Yemenis resent the Houthis for dragging Yemen into a low-intensity but still punishing state of hostilities with major Western powers, particularly the United States. However, many experts argue that global officials should not count on domestic pressure to bring about a change in Houthi policy.

Many global officials argue that the key to ending the Houthi Red Sea attacks is to end the war in Gaza. However, a wide range of experts assess the Houthis will not want to forgo the strategic benefits they have received from their attacks and might continue attacking ships even if a settlement to the Gaza conflict is reached.

It is possible that the Houthis, seeking to capitalize on the leverage their attacks have earned them, might issue new conditions to halt their attacks. The Houthis might, for example, demand the United States and its allies lift all sanctions on Iran, echoing Tehran’s insistence the sanctions constitute “economic warfare” against the Iranian people.

the Houthis might offer to end their Red Sea attacks in exchange for a total and unconditional Saudi military withdrawal from Yemen and agreement by the Republic of Yemen government to cede the group full control of the country.