Iranian regime is facing an existential threat

Two weeks on and it is clear that Iran's president Ibrahim Raisi had little idea of the forces that were being unleashed inside his country. It is still not clear whether the protests are over, despite mass arrests and scores of deaths. Nor is it clear if the older Iranian leadership believe they are facing an existential threat that requires them to change tack.

As the repression and flash demos roll on, spreading from elite universities to school playgrounds, mass arrests have started. In recent days it has seemed like Iran is living in an upside down world, where security guards patrol campuses and students occupy prison cells.

The authorities inevitably focus on violence against the police, and point to large, state-orchestrated marches in support of the regime.

Protesters have fought back against security forces, sometimes by toppling patrol vans, and the tearing down of billboards of the Islamic Republic founder’s Ayatollah Khomeini. The movement’s slogan ‘Women, life and freedom’ is antithetical to the Islamic Republic, which has built itself on being anti-woman, pro-martyrdom and repressive.

Analysts believe the protests had revealed a huge divide in attitudes to the theocratic system, arguing that the sheer force, velocity and audacity of this spontaneous movement have left the regime close to losing control.

The engagement of the vast diaspora, celebrities and sports stars inside and outside Iran also give the protests a different global character, they said.

The fact that security forces arrested those journalists most associated with exposing her death hardly instills confidence that the authorities are engaged in a dispassionate search for the truth.

Journalists in Iran walk a tightrope and can be sacked or even imprisoned for critical tweets. Catch-all charges, such as “disturbing public opinion” and “spreading anti-establishment propaganda”, remind reporters of the limit to free expression.

But the regime is clearly concerned about the frequency of the protests and regards them as debilitating. Hardliners are urging them to be brought to an end with an unprecedented, if largely unseen, crackdown in which protesters will be tried and charged with hirabh, or enmity towards God, which is punishable by death. This may yet get very dark.