Al Shabab and Taliban mirror each other

The Taliban's swift takeover of Afghanistan has raised concerns that it could encourage other Islamist militant groups around the world, such as al-Shabab in Somalia. 

Experts warn that when and if international forces there try to hand over security to the Somali government, the world could see a repeat of what happened in Afghanistan.

Former Somali intelligence official Abdulsalam Gulaid says Somalia could see a similar development unless the Somali government ends its overdependence on international troops. 

He spoke Monday, one day after pro-al-Shabab media outlets in Somalia celebrated the fall of Afghanistan’s government to the Taliban.

Al-Shabab was pushed out of Mogadishu in 2011 by Somali and AU forces but the group still conducts bombings and hit-and-run attacks. It has recently threatened to disrupt ongoing Somali elections, warning tribal delegates not to take part in the process.

Somalia is looking more and more like Afghanistan under the Taliban, two rugged countries 2,000 miles apart, each lacking a central government, each with a Islamist militia that cows the public into submission.

Al Shabab in Somalia and the Taliban in Afghanistan, their tactics increasingly mirror each other. Those tactics worked for the Taliban until the US invasion overthrew it in 2001, and now they are making a comeback. Meanwhile, Al Shabab has gained control over large swaths of this arid Horn of Africa country.

A disrupted electoral contest would sharpen political discord in Somalia, which Al-Shabaab can exploit, while undermining longer-term efforts at reconciliation.