Can Biden change Erdogan’s behavior ?

The meeting between President Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next week on the sidelines of a NATO summit will take place in a fragile moment for Turkey. 

Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey continuously for nearly two decades, has never been more vulnerable. Ankara needs to maintain a positive relationship with Washington to keep its fragile economy afloat. 

Erdogan wants to use this meeting to prevent any further U.S. sanctions that would harm the Turkish economy and defense sector.

As Turkey’s economic crisis deepens, Erdogan’s public approval rating is plunging. On top of all this, Erdogan’s government is facing grave accusations of corruption, rape, and murder from infamous mob boss Sedat Peker, who recently broke with the government and took to YouTube to spill the regime’s dirty laundry in a spectacularly public manner.

On the other hand, Biden administration is unlikely to show any flexibility on its position about Turkey's purchase of a Russian S-400 air defense system and the government's human rights record have strained the relationship.

For Erdogan, giving up on the Russian-made system would be too politically costly and make him look weak. As a result, the issue will likely remain unresolved during this meeting.

Biden, who has pledged to restore human rights and democracy as pillars of U.S. foreign policy, has already shown his distaste for Erdogan, calling him an autocrat and giving him the cold shoulder.

Erdogan’s repression of civil society continues despite all obstacles to tirelessly promote democratic values in Turkish society. For years, Erdogan’s government has harassed, intimidated, or unjustly prosecuted key civil society figures who have called out his steady accumulation of power.

When Biden meets with Erdogan next week, he should make it clear that maintaining a working relationship with Washington requires respecting human rights and the rule of law. Analysts believe Biden is facing a historic opportunity to change Erdogan’s behavior.