Turkey’s EU membership unlikely on the agenda

The European Union's top two officials' rare visit today to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is aimed at testing his avowed commitment to improve uneasy ties.

President Erdogan announced that he was pulling Turkey out of the Istanbul Convention on domestic abuse by presidential decree, prompting an angry statement from EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, who said Ankara was “sending a dangerous message”.

“We cannot but regret deeply and express incomprehension towards the decision of the Turkish government to withdraw from this convention that even bears the name of Istanbul,” he said.

As for the rule of law, Erdogan has shown no willingness to slow the tide of authoritarianism in Turkey, which critics say has been the hallmark of his 18 years in power. 

In February, Ankara launched a violent crackdown on student demonstrators despite threats of EU and US censure, while just a day before the summit, 10 retired admirals were arrested over criticism of the government.

As a result, Turkey as a candidate nation for membership of the European Union, has gone a rocky and ultimately fruitless road. In 2018, negotiations were frozen over what the EU called Turkey’s backsliding with regard to democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental rights under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In reality, negotiations had been frozen since far earlier. The EU wants Ankara to accept the reunification of the divided island of Cyprus. Turkey has refused to consider anything but a two-state solution for the island.

Even if Cyprus were not a red line for a number of European states, including Italy and France - not to mention Greece - there are a number of other seemingly intractable issues between Turkey and the European Union, most recently over refugees.

In 2016, the EU agreed to pay Turkey €6 billion to prevent Syrian refugees from crossing to Greece from Turkey. Five years later, that money has run out and yet millions of refugees still live in Turkey and want to cross to Europe.

As such, Turkey’s EU membership is unlikely to be on the agenda during Von der Leyen and Michel’s trip today.