Turkey’s President Erdoğan Is Losing Ground at Home

 Despite a recent bump in his approval rating—an uptick shared by many leaders around the world during the coronavirus crisis—a substantial body of evidence shows that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is losing ground domestically under the pressure of a cratering economy, an ongoing refugee crisis, and his long-term incumbency. Young Turkish conservatives and some less ideological right-wing nationalists—crucial constituencies that Erdoğan cannot afford to lose—are unhappy with the state of the country and are increasingly considering potential conservative alternatives or successors.

Undoubtedly, President Erdoğan remains the undisputed leader of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish right in general, but waning enthusiasm presents a real threat to his continued dominance. Young voters may desert him in sufficient numbers to allow the opposition to defeat him in the next election, now scheduled for 2023, but genuine conservative alternatives are unlikely to materialize unless and until he loses an election or otherwise withdraws from the scene. President Erdoğan’s dominance of the AKP apparatus, patronage structure, and the Turkish judiciary is a powerful disincentive to conservative challengers but may not be enough to deliver another electoral victory. Still, Erdoğan’s weakening domestic position has important ramifications short of vulnerability in eventual elections. If his weakness proves durable, it may encourage conservative challengers and breakaway factions. More importantly, it raises the likelihood of greater repression at home and more aggressive action abroad. In the past, President Erdoğan has often lashed out when faced with threats to his grip on power, likely aiming to prompt a rally-around-the-flag response from a highly nationalist electorate and to justify greater censorship and political repression of his domestic rivals.1 Furthermore, it is likely that core tenets of Erdoğan’s brand of populist nationalism will outlast him even if he is defeated. Finally, this assessment is predicated on the uncertain assumption—somewhat bolstered by President Erdoğan’s acceptance of setbacks in the 2019 nationwide local elections, albeit after a second vote in Istanbul—that he would accept a hypothetical electoral defeat and not reject or dispute the results.

Political currents on the Turkish right wing may seem academic—far removed from the challenges facing the United States and Europe. In fact, these trends will help shape events across several issues crucial to both U.S. and European interests. Turkey is of critical strategic importance and exercises influence across a range of issues important to the West. A NATO ally, Turkey hosts important Western military installations and is weighing defense procurement decisions that will have huge repercussions for the alliance. Ankara has increasingly asserted itself—often militarily—across the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, deploying combat troops in Syria, Iraq, and Libya and supporting proxy groups across the region. Turkey hosts some 4 million refugees within its borders and controls swathes of northern Syria that are home to more than 3 million civilians, many of whom are displaced from other parts of the country.2 Together with its position as the gateway to Greece and the European Union, Turkey is therefore an essential player in managing the refugee crisis.

Ankara is also engaged in tense disputes over maritime boundaries and energy exploration with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt that are wrapped up in the Libyan war and could easily spiral into open conflict. Yet Turkey is a highly centralized state ruled by one man whose circle of trusted advisers is small and suspicious of Western intentions; there are few institutional checks on President Erdoğan’s actions. Erdoğan’s core interest is regime security and his ambition to assert Turkey as a powerful global actor under his rule. He has repeatedly instrumentalized both brutal domestic repression at home and military adventurism abroad to these ends, particularly when threatened politically. His domestic political challenges are therefore inseparable from crucial matters of regional—and global—interest.